Look at it from the weighted average value of picks perspective. Here are the values from one system - I believe the one followed by the NFL (the NHL is generally considered to be more parabolic, and therefore the top picks are worth even more, relative to the lower picks).
1: 3000
2: 2600
3: 2200
4: 1800
5: 1700
6: 1600
7: 1500
8: 1400
9: 1350
10: 1300
Avg: 1845
In other words, the 4th pick is essentially equal to the average of the top 10 picks. Think of it this way: the difference in value, between #2 and #3 is greater than the difference between #6 and #7.
The difference between #3 and #4 on this depiction is equal to the difference between #4 and #8. And again, it is generally agree that this chart understates the value of top picks for hockey.
If their pick next year does turn out to be a top 3 pick - and especially a top 2 pick - they will have made a very bad choice. If, on the other hand, it turns out to be a #4 through #6 pick, they will have won marginally.
And it is far too early to say next year's draft is weaker. People say that almost every year, early in the year. But by draft time, things can change substantially.
I can say it's a pretty easy decision, and I'll say it again. Easy decision.
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