10th is an extreme longshot.
While the odds of winning the lottery and picking 1st are low, the odds of Ottawa picking top 4 this year are very high.
Their choice was keep the 4th this year and give up next year, or give up the 4th this year.
Considering where things were with Karlsson and Hoffman, and the lack of progress on a contract with Stone, plus the fact that Buffalo and Arizona are probably improved this year,IMO it was an easy call to give up the 4th and keep the lottery pick.
If Ottawa finishes 31st, the pick has a 100% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 30th, it has a 82.1% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 29th, it has a 47.1% chance of being top 4.
How many people think Ottawa has any kind of realistic chance of finishing higher than bottom 3?
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