So this move is a no-brainer and makes so much sense to me.
Firstly, in isolation, the cap impacts are a net positive.
Buy out this year: $1.5M * 4 years, extended out to year 4 = $6M against the cap in total
Buy out next year: $4.5M + $1.5M * 2 years, out to year 3 = $7.5M against the cap in total
Don't buy out: $4.5M + $4.5M = $9M against the cap in total
Savings: $1.5M in cap space from the cheaper alternative, or $3M from the no buy-out alternative.
So even simplistically, there is a cap savings by opting to buy out now (by the way, the 2/3 payout structure further incentivizes teams to buy out a negative contract instead of sending the player to perpetually road-trip in the minors, something the NHLPA may have disliked more than a discounted buyout which at least ensures 2/3 value and grants immediate freedom).
This doesn't consider the cost to replace his performance on the team, which is low if he was going to be outworked and pushed off the team by young guys on entry-level contracts, anyway. If he sits in the press-box, then there isn't much cost to replace him, other than the luxury of having a 23rd man on the roster. If he made the team as a 4th liner, then the cost is whatever it would be to replace him (i.e. $925K for Spencer Foo). So your additional cost would be $925k * 2 years
Therefore savings are at least $3M - $1.85M = $1.15M
This doesn't even consider the discount factor, which essentially means that with the assumption that the Salary Cap will increase by some amount each year, the $1.5M is less and less significant comparatively each year.
I.e. $1.5M during 2015-2016 (salary cap of $71.4M) was 2.10% of the salary cap, and 51.72% of an NHL player's average annual salary that year ($2.9M), whereas in 2018-2019, $1.5M makes up 1.89% of the total salary cap ($79.5M). I would expect a proportionate decrease in the percentage of how much $1.5M represents in the average 2018-2019 player salary, since the salary cap and average player salaries are fundamentally related.
If you then layer on potential savings from other players' contracts, there is even more value from this move. Bingo has mentioned in various threads the potential savings from a newly enabled long-term Hanifin contract versus a bridge contract if Hanifin performs well and raises his stock beyond his current, realistic projection, like many expect.
Then you factor in the stakeholders, and looking at who Treliving has to please. The owners save real dollars, which are not discounted if the buyout payments are regular salary installments. He is also enabling himself to become better by subtraction, which the owners are also concerned about.
Looking through the lense of simply improving the hockey team, you are removing someone that has become slower and slower, and highly ineffective, even with a negative impact on his line at times, and make room for a blossoming prospect. And you also know the Calgary Flames keep the pulse of the fanbase by monitoring Twitter, CP, etc., so another externality is that they get almost widespread approval and excitement from the fanbase.
It just makes sense on all fronts to me!
Last edited by Plaedo; 08-02-2018 at 06:41 PM.
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