I would have guessed that had the flames taken this to arbitration, they may have saved another $50k, but the ask from Hathaway was a lot more reasonable than Kulak (so likely not worth it).
Looking at the next couple of years, the Flames need to be very careful here going forward. There is not a lot of salary coming off the books next year (really only Mike Smith who presumable is re-signed for a minor discount in contract or is replaced by another $4M goalie). In that time, Tkachuck and Bennett will both (hopefully) require substantial raises. Assuming that Tkachuck has a matching year to this one he would definitely be in the $5M+ range (bridge or otherwise) and if he continues on his growth path he may be in the team-internal cap range.
Realistically speaking (looking at the deltas) and recognizing that any other players on close to minimum contracts will need to be re-signed or replaced by players on similar contracts:
+4M Cap Increase (max)
+1M** Potential Savings from re-signing Smith to a cheaper contract
-4.15 to 6M for Tkachuck's increase in salary (total Salary up to $6.85M)
-2M for Bennets increase in salary
+3M for Brouwer Buyout
+2.3M for Stone Buyout (3.5M for Stone Trade)
+0M Performance Bonus Carry-Over
+0.9M Current Buy-outs off the books
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$3.2M to $5.05M available assuming the cap does in fact go up $4M, Brouwer and Stone are bought out this year or next year
**+3M if one of Gillies or Rittich can take the starter job outright this year, I don't think the team will be comfortable going with those two unless one has at a minimum "Grubaured" this year.
I did this analysis to convince myself that they should not max-out the cap this year on Hanifin to ensure they have sufficient options next year with Tkachuck's pending raise. Looking at this now, I believe that they can go to the $4.5M on Hanifin without any major issues next year. This would leave a ~$3M cushion, in case:
1. Tkachuck becomes an $8M player instead of $6.5M,
2. Bennet becomes a $5.5M player instead of $4M player
3. The cap goes up by less than $4M
4. We need to pay a starting goalie more than the $4.25M that we are paying Smith.
Two other items stood out of this analysis and review for me:
1. Our days of adding without subtracting are largely over for the next 2 years. Our days of hunting for a big name FA are likely over until the summer of 2020.
2. Bridging Hanafin for only two years is dangerous because his contract would be due the same year as Brodie and Hamonic. I would hope that at least one of: Valimaki or Anderson is playing a top 4 role at that point allowing the Flames to re-up at least two of the three by using the third defenders salary.
I think a 5-6 year deal at $4.5M is probably as high as the Flames would probably want to go with Hanifin. A 5-6 year deal would probably cost closer to $5.5M. Based on the above, that is definitely outside of my comfort zone, it will be interesting to see if the Flames feel the same way.
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Go Flames Go
Last edited by tkflames; 07-30-2018 at 10:43 AM.
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