Quote:
Originally Posted by Toonage
For what its worth, Boomer mentioned yesterday morning that Hanifin & the team were
interested in a longer deal. If someone recalls the conversation please chime in.
It sounded like a bridge deal may not be in the offing but something a little longer. That would put the cost up, probably past $4M
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If I were the Flames I would want to lock up Hanifin long term. He hasn't done enough yet to make major coin, and if he breaks out, that cost could well go up a lot.
in the 2015 draft class, no other high pick D have been signed past their ELC yet, but going back to 2012, a defence heavy draft, gets a lot of comparables:
Hampus Lindholm - signed longterm, 31.5/6 years, but due to late signing = 5.205M AAV
Morgan Rielly - signed longterm 30/6 years = 5M AAV
Jacob Trouba - bridged at 6/2 years = 3M AAV - asking for 7M now
Matt Dumba - bridged at 5.1/2 = 2.55M AAV, up for a raise
If we compare the Trouba vs Rielly deals (closest comparables IMO):
If Trouba signs for less than 24/4 = 6M AAV, then the bridge was a win for the team. But if he signs for more, without giving good value with more UFA years, then the player won. With Trouba seeking 7M and the Jets seeking 4M, this is up in the air. The only reason it is up in the air though is Trouba only playing 60 and 55 games the past 2 seasons.
Another consideration to long term is that it buys UFA years and therefore avoids arbitration. If there is one thing we know with Treliving as a GM it is that he likes to avoid arbitration and other low-leverage situations.
However, if Hanifin is looking at say 3M AAV vs 5M AAV, he may want to back himself to take a run at a bigger deal with the cap rising.
But then again the uncertainty with the next CBA (opt out 2 years, expiry 4 years) a 2 year deal may be a risk as he could be waiting on bargaining to determine potentially a new structure, so there are a lot of factors.
I think long term favours the team over the player with a guy like Hanifin, as he has showed some growth, yet has not done so much as to make a bigger deal like Hamilton got from the Flames when they picked him up. Only considering cap inflation would result in his market value on a long term deal starting with a 5