Quote:
Originally Posted by bomber317
His predictions for the Calgary signings were pretty close
Neal - 1.8% off
Ryan - 2.1% off
Czarnik - 38% off - Guess that was the overpayment due to the number of teams interested - Prediction was $775k vs the $1.25 mil that was signed.
Neal term was predicted as follows
1 year - 25%
2 year - 21%
3 year - 14%
4 year - 10%
5 year - 8%
Not sure what the modeling is for this. We all did agree that the term was the most troubling aspect of the contract. So a 8% prediction for a 5-year term lines up with that in some sense.
he has the following predictions for
Lindholm - 5 years @ 4.978 Mil
Hanifin - 2 years @ 2.336 mil
Hathaway - 2 years @ 1.055 mil
Kulak - 1 year @ 820k
Another interesting thing is the Canucks signings for Beagle and Roussel were 26% and 18% higher than he predicted. Really odd signings by the Canucks on those 2 in terms of timing with their window to win. Also shows the granlund contract was higher than predicted, but the Sven contract about spot on.
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Yeah I understand all of that except for the part where Neal had the greatest percentage of signing a one year deal. One of most sought after free agents signing a one year deal at age 30? Seems very unlikely no matter who the player is.