Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
I'm not understanding his thought process here. There was no way Neal was signing a one year deal. Any idea how he came to that conclusion? If you scroll over to the right you can see that his 5 year value for Neal was $5,853,567. For Ryan he had a 3 year value at $3,059,723.
|
His predictions for the Calgary signings were pretty close
Neal - 1.8% off
Ryan - 2.1% off
Czarnik - 38% off - Guess that was the overpayment due to the number of teams interested - Prediction was $775k vs the $1.25 mil that was signed.
Neal term was predicted as follows
1 year - 25%
2 year - 21%
3 year - 14%
4 year - 10%
5 year - 8%
Not sure what the modeling is for this. We all did agree that the term was the most troubling aspect of the contract. So a 8% prediction for a 5-year term lines up with that in some sense.
he has the following predictions for
Lindholm - 5 years @ 4.978 Mil
Hanifin - 2 years @ 2.336 mil
Hathaway - 2 years @ 1.055 mil
Kulak - 1 year @ 820k
Another interesting thing is the Canucks signings for Beagle and Roussel were 26% and 18% higher than he predicted. Really odd signings by the Canucks on those 2 in terms of timing with their window to win. Also shows the granlund contract was higher than predicted, but the Sven contract about spot on.