Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [CP Story] WAR Model and an Updated Roster

Cali Panthers Fan · 07-04-2018, 12:12 PM

My first comment is simple. This doesn't take into account goaltending. I think if you looked at a better WAR value for goaltenders, you would understand the difference in the WAR and standings.

For example:

Anaheim's WAR is listed as 17th, but their standings was 9th. That's because of John Gibson. He covers up a lot of problems on that team, and I'm surprised he wasn't given more Vezina votes. He was that good.

In fact, in the Corsica rankings his rating was the highest of all goalies at 81.32, and was the only goalie in the top 30 player rankings.

Then Vegas, another outlier, goes from the 15th ranked WAR to the 5th spot in the standings. The reason? Marc Andre Fleury who was 4th best goalie last year with a 79.62 ratings.

The Kings as another outlier? Jonathan Quick who was the 9th ranked goalie at 76.08

How about the other way?

Montreal went from 14th in WAR to 28th in the standings...well guess what. Price had a bad year ranked as the 30th best goalie with just a 72.61 rating just ahead of such excellent goalies such as Michael Neuvirth and Brian Elliott.

St. Louis goes from 7th to 18th. Well Jake Allen was pretty awful all year with a rating of 70.30 and ranked 47th in the NHL. Carter Hutton was much better ranked 22nd, but he only had 32 starts despite being the far better goalie, so he didn't change their position in the standings that much.

The only weird one is Dallas as Ben Bishop had a very solid year ranked 15th with a rating of 75.15. Is it possible that Lehtonen was that bad as the back up? Well, he's still looking for a job, so probably.

Going forward, I would definitely look at the impact of goaltending on team numbers if you're going to do this.

07-04-2018, 12:12 PM	#2
Cali Panthers Fan Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Boca Raton, FL Exp:	My first comment is simple. This doesn't take into account goaltending. I think if you looked at a better WAR value for goaltenders, you would understand the difference in the WAR and standings. For example: Anaheim's WAR is listed as 17th, but their standings was 9th. That's because of John Gibson. He covers up a lot of problems on that team, and I'm surprised he wasn't given more Vezina votes. He was that good. In fact, in the Corsica rankings his rating was the highest of all goalies at 81.32, and was the only goalie in the top 30 player rankings. Then Vegas, another outlier, goes from the 15th ranked WAR to the 5th spot in the standings. The reason? Marc Andre Fleury who was 4th best goalie last year with a 79.62 ratings. The Kings as another outlier? Jonathan Quick who was the 9th ranked goalie at 76.08 How about the other way? Montreal went from 14th in WAR to 28th in the standings...well guess what. Price had a bad year ranked as the 30th best goalie with just a 72.61 rating just ahead of such excellent goalies such as Michael Neuvirth and Brian Elliott. St. Louis goes from 7th to 18th. Well Jake Allen was pretty awful all year with a rating of 70.30 and ranked 47th in the NHL. Carter Hutton was much better ranked 22nd, but he only had 32 starts despite being the far better goalie, so he didn't change their position in the standings that much. The only weird one is Dallas as Ben Bishop had a very solid year ranked 15th with a rating of 75.15. Is it possible that Lehtonen was that bad as the back up? Well, he's still looking for a job, so probably. Going forward, I would definitely look at the impact of goaltending on team numbers if you're going to do this. __________________ "You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender Last edited by Cali Panthers Fan; 07-04-2018 at 12:18 PM.