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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
I did, and they said exactly what I said they did. I did not speak to what might have happened had he played a full season in each of those years. Are you trying to establish that the guy is injury prone? Good job.
If you want to look at rate stats, you could look at his total TOI, which was 1134 minutes in 2012, 515 in 2013 (lockout), 802 in 2014, 950 in 2015, 1248 in 2016, 978 in 2017 and 992 in 2018. I'd expect him to see, what, 1100 minutes this season if he's on the first line?
You could also look at p/60, which has gone 2.31, 1.48, 1.13, 1.89 over the past 4 seasons. If we optimistically say he's a 2p/60 player, and he plays 1100 ES minutes, that's 36 ES points, which would be really good since he's probably good for ~20 power play points on the first unit (he's had between 15 and 21 for the past 4 years). That'd get him into the mid 50's, though that assumes a lot of things go right and that the coaching staff uses him in that capacity. I guess we'll have to wait and see how he's deployed.
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Obviously the only thing we're going to do between now and October 3rd is wait and see. He could miss time with an injury. Peters could go crazy and put him on the 4th line. He could get zero time on the Brouwerplay. He could have zero chemistry with Gaudreau & Monahan. Lindholm could force himself into that top line RW spot. He could get a career ending injury on opening night. Or he could play top line minutes through a full 82 games.
You're not taking a wait and see approach when you're suggesting there's a chance he won't exceed 25 goals without noting the reason he didn't reach it in 2015 & 2017 was because he missed games. He still hit 23 in both of those years. Had he not missed those 27 games he easily would have been a +25 goal scorer every single year of his career. Could he have had more ice time in those seasons? Let me know what the stats say.
In 2011 he had 22 in 79 games but only 1 of those was in 20 after being traded to Pittsburgh. What happened after the trade?
Then to come back with p/60 and toi stats to waver and waffle. What's the point? We have proof that he's consistent in the stat that counts on the scoresheet. Goals.
There's probably stats that would back up that with an elite passer in Gaudreau, and potentially a full season of 1st line minutes his point production should go up, but I'm not an analytics guy. I just watch games.