Quote:
Originally Posted by topfiverecords
For an analytics guy you'd think you would actually look at the stats.
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I did, and they said exactly what I said they did. I did not speak to what might have happened had he played a full season in each of those years. Are you trying to establish that the guy is injury prone? Good job.
If you want to look at rate stats, you could look at his total TOI, which was 1134 minutes in 2012, 515 in 2013 (lockout), 802 in 2014, 950 in 2015, 1248 in 2016, 978 in 2017 and 992 in 2018. I'd expect him to see, what, 1100 minutes this season if he's on the first line?
You could also look at p/60, which has gone 2.31, 1.48, 1.13, 1.89 over the past 4 seasons. If we optimistically say he's a 2p/60 player, and he plays 1100 ES minutes, that's 36 ES points, which would be really good since he's probably good for ~20 power play points on the first unit (he's had between 15 and 21 for the past 4 years). That'd get him into the mid 50's, though that assumes a lot of things go right and that the coaching staff uses him in that capacity. I guess we'll have to wait and see how he's deployed.