Quote:
Originally Posted by SanFranFlamesFan
I apologize if this has been referenced anywhere else, but I read Ryan Stimson's first piece for The Athletic on how the Sabres (or anyone really) could identify cheap, under-utilized talent.
His #1 suggested target is Nick Shore. By Stimson's own Personal Shot Contribution metric (shot assists + assists, where a shot assist is an assist that leads directly to a shot) Shore compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season with Tampa. His rate stats are in line with 1st line/2nd liners around the NHL.
He suggests there is evidence that Shore could really thrive with more talented linemates, given that he was dragging around Trevor Lewis, Jordan Nolan and Andy Andreoff.
A highly recommended read if you're an Athletic subscriber. It left me hoping that we re-sign him, and give him a chance with more more talented linemates to see what he can do. |
This absolutely screams data mining to me. Acquiring 'shot assists' but not actual assists might be a sign of a great player who is playing with lousy line-mates, or it might just mean that the shot assists are not all that effective. Or it might mean absolutely nothing at all.
The stat requires a lot more than 'compares very similarly to Jonathan Marchessault in his age-25 season' before one should start hanging their hat on it as a useful predictor.
If you compare any finite set of data, you will find patterns that are just coincidence. For instance, if you look at, say, 5 years of stock returns, you will discover things like: investing in stocks that begin with a particular letter will result in outperformance; or if you buy on the 12th and sell on the 21st of every month you will outperform (or whatever). Unfortunately, in the next period, it will be a different letter and a different set of time periods.
Patterns showing up in data does not prove anything (unless you can go on to show that the patterns are consistent, sensible, repeatable, robust, etc).
When I watch Nick Shore, I see a serviceable player, but without a lot of offensive flair. If that changes, and he starts producing more, it will more likely be because he has done something to improve his game.