Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
I don't think one player is enough.
There is the notion that a trickle down effect will happen with the addition of a top 6 player to play with Monahan and gaudreau. I don't think this is necessarily accurate or predictable as a guy like ferland or backlund in my opinion are not as productive without their finishing counterparts. in my opinion this is a component limiting the impact of tkachuk, his linemates aren't good enough to help him be that impact 35 goal 70 point player, but the options are limited right now to get him to be that player without hurting the overall fortunes of the team.
For example what is the knock-on impact of ferland being separated from gaudreau and Monahan? Less overall team success in my opinion.
The goal needs to be assembling a team that is likely to be a top 10 offensive team. A team you can look at on paper and suggest barring injury there are 3-4 candidates very likely to hit the 70 point threshold. The flames really only have one of those players right now. The knock-on impact of a Ryan O'Reilly or maybe even a Skinner impact is potentially turning 1 or 2 more guys into that 70 point threshold, but that still means the bottom 6 needs an addition in offense.
In an example where Skinner is acquired and pushes ferland down the lineup for example, is ferland going to score 20 with backlund as his center? In my opinion that is not likely, which means the problem of depth scoring largely remains.
I don't think you can say internal development will or is even likely to bridge that gap. I don't think you can expect Jankowski and Bennett to produce much more offense with Frolik on their wing as compared to Hathaway, and that's the problem. A top 6 addition doesn't open up more pp time for Bennett or ferland, it likely limits it, which means offensive growth from them will have to come at even strength, and I don't think frolik really provides enough impact in that regard.
To get the trickle down requires moving essentially the entire 2nd line down. Frolik/backlund/Bennett could be that third line option again, but to do that means bringing in a center and a winger who are legit top 6 players; tough task.
To be a legitimate top 10 team in scoring means acquiring a player like Skinner and O'Reilly so that a top 6 injury doesn't completely gut the teams offense like happened last year.
Barring that, you need at least one of those types of players and then a top tier bottom 6 player, and everything to go right. Like you said in your article, I don't think the flames can bank on that for the second season in a row.
If the flames want to win the expectation needs to be a top 10 offensive team next year, and that means adding ~50 goals to the roster that aren't there now. Maybe they don't end up finishing top 10 due to a variety of reasons but they need to have that capacity based on the most recent history of the players assembled on paper. 2x 30 goal scorers, 2x25 goal scorers, 3x 15-20 goal scorers.
Tall order to address that in one off season.
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If they think they can go from 20th to top 8 and win a cup they'd have to be more aggressive for sure.
I think it's get into the top 12 offensively and be a firm playoff spot, that takes on top six.
I disagree with a bunch you said. If you had just read your comments an not the article you'd think I had pencilled in huge growth from all the returning players on the team and that just isn't the case.
My estimate ...
Monahan +4
Gaudreau +1
Tkachuk +1
Ferrland -3
Jankowski +1
Backlund +4 (between his last two years)
Bennett +4
Frolik +0
Brouwer -1
Shore +0
Hathaway +1
That's hardly a shopping list of everything is rainbows.
It produces 184 goals which is still weak, moving the team from 22nd to 19th making it really clear they need to add scoring and it can't come from the bottom.
Adding a 25 goal scorer however moves them to 11th and a competitive team while only essentially moving two players down the roster ... Ferland to play with Backlund and Frolik to play with Jankowski.
Backlund has a history of elevating players so I don't see a big shrink in Ferland (hence the -3), and I didn't boost Frolik at all playing with two young player despite having some of the worst shooting luck in the NHL last year.