Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson
2017-18
Together at 5v5, Hamilton and Giordano have a CF% of 58.25%. Without Giordano at 5v5, Hamilton has a CF% of 53.33%. Without Hamilton at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 53.33%.
2014-15
Together at 5v5, Giordano and Brodie had a CF% of 49.00% (the Flames were awful). Without Giordano at 5v5, Brodie had a CF% of 39.18%. Without Brodie at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 43.00%.
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Here's the flaw to your analysis: WOWY stats for defensemen are highly dependent on who the other options are. The truth is that back in 2014-15, Dennis Wideman was a better possession defenseman than Kris Russell and Deryk Engelland. When Giordano wasn't playing with Brodie, he was playing with Wideman. When Brodie wasn't playing with Giordano, he was playing with Russell and Engelland.
First of all, yes Giordano is a superior shot metric player to Brodie because of his elite shot generation ability and Brodie's general refusal to shoot. However, it is debatable if Giordano is a better shot suppressor to Brodie (both are excellent however).
In reality, Brodie's elite shot suppression (which is a combination of his neutral zone gap control, defensive zone takeaway ability, and his excellent first pass) were a definite boon on Giordano's play. No player on that pair "carried" the other because both were constantly covering for each other. A basic look at CF% can't show that.
When Giordano got hurt in 2014-15, his shot suppression numbers didn't actually fall off but his %s fell off because he was playing with partners who did not drive shot attempts for. Defensively, the Brodie-Engelland pairing carried this team to the playoffs by taking on difficult matchups (and that was 70+% Brodie, as Engelland was remarkably prone to having his breakout plays picked off or turn into icings). Offensively, they naturally struggled - because they should have - Brodie was playing the left side and neither Engelland no Brodie is a volume shot generating defenseman.
The truth is this though - As a purely defensive pair, Brodie-Engelland managed to keep goal events against low enough that the more offensive pairs - Schlemko-Diaz and Russell-Wideman, were able to stay above water. This was only possible because TJ Brodie is a phenomenal defensive defenseman. Of course it would be nice if he could be gatling gun shooter from the point, but he as able to offset that offensive shortcoming with his playmaking ability - something which is not obvious in underlying metrics.
One of the most effective pairings we've had over the last four seasons is Russell-Brodie. Kris Russell sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but it's not a coincidence this pairing had chemistry - it placed Brodie on his right side where his offensive creativity could shine, and together they could skate as well as any D pairing in the NHL. But merely looking at their CF% would tell you they were a bad pairing. Which has some merit - Russell is not a top four defenseman on a good team, but Brodie was able to work with what he could do well and carry him. This pairing had strong goal differentials.
One of the least effective pairings we've had over the last ~six seasons is Giordano-Wideman. Wideman also sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but he has an excellent first pass which does minimize some goal events against. Regardless, the underlying numbers of the the Giordano-Wideman pair were decent because Wideman was good at getting shots, but this was fools gold because Giordano could not carry Wideman in the defensive zone.
WOWY stats are very very useful and I encourage you to continue using them. But there are things they don't tell you and can purposefully obscure. Sometime it's better to look at the success of actual pairings when apart from each other. For instance Deryk Engelland is a player both Brodie and Gio have played significant minutes with.
Brodie - Engelland
42.99% CF
34.49 ZSR
632.84 TOI together
Gio - Engelland
42.48% CF
37.25 ZSR
303.04 TOI together
Well first of all, the big difference is Brodie spent TWICE as much time on a pairing with Engelland. His overall statistics over the same period of time are thus more skewed by that pairing.
We can look at the other pairs too:
Brodie-Wideman
48.64%
50% ZSR
728 TOI
Giordano Wideman
49.13%
46.94% ZSR
326.45 TOI
Again there isn't a huge gap. Except in the ice time, where Brodie is being skewed towards the inferior partner.
Russell-Brodie
40.87% CF
32.1% ZSR
206.65 TOI
Giordano-Russell
31.33% CF
33.33 ZSR
21.97 TOI
The major gap here is the ice time. Giordano almost never had to play with Kris Russell. For the record though, Russell-Brodie had very good goal differentials that defy their underlying statistics.
Finally, I am not saying Brodie's possession stats are or should be as good as Hamilton OR Giordano. I very easily concede those two are possession monsters. But that's because of shot generation, not because of who carried a pairing - which has a lot more to do with who is getting the puck out of the defensive zone efficiently and is something all three of Brodie, Hamilton, and Giordano do well. Of course more shots are better, but as we saw last year, volume shooting is not a holistic solution.
The truth is this - after our top three defensemen there is a steep dropoff as far as guys who can play WITH the puck in the defensive zone. A lot of emphasis is placed on playing without the puck but the truth is that in the NHL, if you don't have the puck and you're in the defensvie zone, you are at the mercy of whether your goalie can make a save through traffic and deflections. Being able to make plays with the puck is how you keep goals against down, and that's what makes Kulak a player who should get the opportunity to play with Brodie. It's a pairing I firmly believe will not only work but be successful.