Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
An 80% chance of a PC majority does not mean a 20% chance of an NDP majority.
Nor is 2 heads equal to 20%.
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Fair point.
I should have said that two coin flips is the probability of not getting a Conservatove majority. Given the accuracy of riding by riding assessment and the polls themselves a 75% chance and an 80% are making the same statement. The error bars on that percentage are large. The general point is that it is not unlikely or a polling failure if the PCs were to not win a majority Friday
Also not accounted for is the Trend that the NDP support has been rising which is very hard to factor in into these types of models.