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Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988
I read the tweet, he's all over the place and has all his bases covered, so that no matter what contract is signed, he's always "close" by either length or value.
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I appreciate that this guy has made predictions for every potential term, since it is frequently difficult to guess what individual players and teams are negotiating. However, in looking into his numbers, I don't see how you can claim that he is covering all of his bases. The difference he had projected between 1-year and 8-year deals for Evander Kane is around $1.2 m between a $6-m and $7-m deal. That is a difference of 16–20%, which seems quite reasonable to me. But the fact that his estimate of a seven-year contract was within 1.5% of the actual deal is pretty compelling.
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His 2 year prediction for Kane is 6.5 and his 3 year prediction is 7.2
It makes no sense, just covering his bases to say how "close" he is.
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It makes no sense because he has withheld his formula. I suspect that if he played out his method and various factors his projections would be much more obvious. This seems far from arbitrary as you suggest.