Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle
Thought it might be interesting to add some context to the discussion of trade proposals.
Below is a list of Calgary's 5 on 5 points per 60 min (filtered for having played more than 300 min for the season). For context, of the remaining teams in the playoffs the top 6 guys on the roster are all 1.7 or greater and in fact the top 6 guys on most playoff contending teams were above 1.7.
Johnny#Gaudreau 2.61
Sean#Monahan 2.32
Micheal#Ferland 2.05
Matthew#Tkachuk 1.69
Mikael#Backlund 1.47
Mark#Jankowski 1.41
Sam#Bennett 1.41
Michael#Frolik 1.26
Garnet#Hathaway 1.18
Matt#Stajan 1.15
Troy#Brouwer 1.13
Curtis#Lazar 1.09
Here are some of the trade/UFA candidates points per 60 min 5 on 5. For context I provided the delta from the highest points per 60 on the team in brackets to try and give a little balance the good team vs bad team ratio:
David#Perron 2.11 (-0.52) 4th on team
Corey#Perry 2.03 (-0.49) 4th on team
John#Tavares 2.02 (-0.86) 3rd on team (Barzal was a beast at 2.88)
Miles Wood 2.00 (-0.42) 3rd on team
Kevin#Hayes 1.96 (0) 1st on team
Brendan#Gallagher 1.88 (0) 1st on team
Andreas Athanasiou 1.81 (-0.46) 4th on team
Rick#Nash(Ranger's) 1.77 (-0.19) 4th on team
James#Neal 1.75 (-0.88) 6th on team
Mike#Hoffman 1.44 (-1.44) 6th on team
Alex#Galchenyuk 1.40 (-0.48) 5th on team
Ryan#O'Reilly 1.08 (-0.98) 9th on team
This is a simplistic analysis and skewed by coaching style and probably most significantly by quality of line mates. Obviously nobody is taking Perron over Tavares. What this does tell me though is that if I were Tre I would do some serious homework on Galchenyuk, Hoffman and O'Reilly before considering a trade for them. It also tells me that Hayes and Gallagher seem like pretty prime targets and if I'm looking to add speed and youth I take a chance on Athanasiou or Wood if the cost is right.
Looking at the list of players as a whole anyone James Neal and up would essentially become our 4th/5th best forward. Adding even one guy would have a significant impact on the roster IMO. Add one guy by trade and one by FA and you essentially replace 2 of Lazar, Hathaway and Brouwer with clear improvements.
I believe your best trade options are to try move Brodie +/- depending on the guy for either Hayes, Gallagher, Athanasiou or Wood (not sure Perry has the wheels to fit in here and that contract...). Then try to sign a proven UFA scorer like Nash or Neal. Buy out Brouwer if you get 2 guys and you keep him if you get one guy and you can still afford him.
Just a note, I left out JVR because as Sureloss pointed out to me, Calgary was on his no-trade list. I'm sure he hasn't all of a sudden changed his opinion of Calgary.
Let me know if you'd like another comparison and I'll look at those guys too.
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Can you calculate Backlund's 5on5 points percentage for each year of his career compared to the league average, or say league playoff average?