The Athletic has a really great article on Bennett's trade value as a top 5 pick, now 5 years out from his draft. They compare him to similar players who were traded, and pare the list down to guys who are similar - good rookie season, but fail to develop beyond there, and seem to be "stuck".
Athletic Link (Paywall)
For comparable forwards:
Quote:
Forwards
Nino Niederreiter
Nail Yakupov
James van Riemsdyk
Ryan Strome
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Kent Wilson's conclusion is that he could be Nail Yakupov, or he could be James van Riemsdyk (who turned into a good 25 goal 55 point player a couple years later).
Quote:
Clearly, it's difficult to nail down a true value for Bennett here. Yakupov, despite being a first overall pick and an NHL player, fetched far less than did Reinhart, a fourth overall pick who never found his way out of the AHL. Perhaps the moral here is “make a trade with Edmonton if possible.” Oh, and don't trade for a defensive defenceman.
In reality, it will depend on a variety of factors including the perception of the player around the league and the needs of the potential trading partners. What this is exercise illustrates, however, is the potential pitfalls facing the Flames either way. Is Bennett like Niederreiter or van Riemsdyk? A guy who will figure it out in a year or two and become a solid top-six contributor? If so, they could lose almost any trade they make.
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Its a neat article. I fall on the side of "hold" when it comes to Bennett after reading it - the guy may be 5 years from his draft, but clearly there is upside to be had. Yakupov is the cautionary tail of holding onto a guy for too long, but the big difference I see there is Yakupov's "give a s---" meter is a lot lower than Bennett's.
My other takeaway is that any concept of Bennett as our top line PPG center is dead and gone. Secondary scoring is about as good as it's ever going to get at this point. That's a bit of a hard pill to swallow as a long term Flames fan, given that he's our highest ever draft pick - but I still say keep the asset provides more potential upside than a trade at this point. Even for a first rounder.
(Off Topic) I used to be pretty anti-paywall BTW - but I really can't say enough about how amazing the Athletic is.