Originally Posted by Enoch Root
We have been through this before. But I disagree with you about the team being less talented. When you go down the lineup, there is simply no way you can make that case. Here are the lineups from the 15/16 season, compared to this year. Obviously, players can be slotted into different spots, but I went with games played (for the bottom 6) in order to be objective. This is how they compare:
Gaudreau-Mony-Hudler * * * Gaudreau-Mony-Ferland
Bouma-Backlund-Frolik * * * Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik
Colborne-Bennett-Jones* * * Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway
Ferland-Stajan-Jooris * * * * Lazar-Stajan-Brouwer
Bollig, Granlund, Raymond * Versteeg, Jagr, Glass, Mangiapane
Hathaway
Giordano - Hamilton * * * * Giordano - Hamilton
Brodie - Wideman * * * * * Brodie - Hamonic
Russell - Engelland * * * * *Kulak - Stone
Jokipakka * * * * * * * * * Bartkowski
I don't see any spot on the 2015 roster that is better than the current roster, other than the third D pairing.
Let's look at the top line. Before Hudler got traded, their PPG were 1.00, 0.69 and 0.66. Over the same 53 games, the line this year (with Ferland) was 1.17, 0.90 and 0.62. Advantage 2017/18
Second line: clear advantage to this year, due to Tkachuk
Third line: slight advantage to this season IMO, though some inconsistent play on all fronts in both years.
Fourth line: a wash. Ferland is better than Lazar but Brouwer is better than Jooris.
Extras: Versteeg > Granlund, Jagr > Raymond, Glass > Bollig, Hathaway > Mangiapane (for now)
On D, you think Giordano isn't as good as he was at 32. I disagree. I think he carried the team this year, along with Gaudreau, and was every bit as good as he has ever been. Hamilton is better than he was 2 years ago.
We will have to agree to disagree on Wideman. Hamonic is significantly better, IMO.
Third pair: Russell-Engelland was better than Kulak-Stone. But it's close, as Kulak got better and better throughout the year.
As for Stone, seasons of 21, 18 and 36 points. Then 15 and 10 in the last 2. Maybe he is losing it, but at 27, that seems highly unlikely to me.
Bottom line is pretty clear IMO: the team has more talent, but the goals are drying up.
2015/16: 229 (10th)
2016/17: 222 (17th)
2017/18: 216 (27th)
Yes, I think it is primarily coaching and style of play because the team has been getting more talented over the past 2 years, but the offense is producing less.
Maybe it's just luck. Maybe they have collectively lost the ability to shoot. But those seem pretty unlikely to me. Style of play is far more plausible. And that is what I see.
Oh, one more thing: regarding the: "Gaudreau, Monahan and Ferland are doing well, so how can it be style of play?" argument, I think the thread talking about the Royal Road and forcing the goalie to move is a really important piece of the puzzle.
Despite the system, Gaudreau makes a lot of cross-ice passes, and he shifts a lot as well. To put it simply, Gaudreau is so creative, he is getting the goalie moving, even when the defense is set.
The other forwards, excluding Tkachuk, simply aren't able to do that - they can't overcome the system and the defenses.
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