Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I disagree with the bold (at least within the confines of looking at the Flames from year to year). I do not think this team had less talent than the lineups from 2 and 3 years earlier. I think it was much more talented.
I think the lack of scoring from the 2nd through the 4th lines was as much style of play as it was lack of talent.
I would also turn the argument around and say that maybe the lack of scoring from the bottom 9 was because of the lack of support from the D not joining the offense enough.
Also, you tried to argue that scoring was down, which would lead to PBD being down. However, that isn't really true. From 15/16 to 17/18, team scoring dropped 13 goals, or 5.6%. But PBD dropped 28.1% over the same period.
I look at the precipitous drop in PBD and for, that goes a long way in explaining why the forwards aren't scoring as much, other than Johnny's line, which I attribute to him and Monahan continuing to get better. And to which I add: how many points would Johnny be getting if the D were contributing to the offense the way they should?
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Nah, I think Flames Draft Watcher is right.
Compare this years top 3 d to last years top 3 d, then compare the bottom 3 d from this year to last.
Team scoring outside of the top line dropped off significantly, and the team added two defensive players who have never consistently put up points. Hamonic has just a single season of 25 points or more in his last 6 seasons, with a career high 5 goals. Even with the wheels falling off, wideman was a better offensive player than Hamonic. Just look at hamonic in the offensive zone and tell me with a straight face you expect that guy to produce offense.
Same story with Stone. Career high 8 goals,one 25 point season in his last 6.
When Gio was putting up 50+ points in a season when he was 30-31 years old. Now he's 34. Had he been drafted in the 2002 draft class with his peers, he would've lead that draft class in defensemen scoring this year. As far as I can tell, only one 34+ year old defender scored more than 30 points this year other than Giordano and that was Duncan Keith who finished with 6 less points than Gio.
Is it really appropriate to expect a 34 year old defender to be a 40+ player anymore?
Brodie finished barely below his 5 season average for points and Dougie had an enigmatic season scoring 4 more goals but 6 less points than last year.
But is that really a massive statistical difference in defensive output from Calgary's top 3 minute eaters? Is that a sign that the 'system' varied significantly from one year of Gulutzan to another year of Gulutzan? Giordano ended up scoring one less point than he did last year. Is that the system, age, or group of players?
For me it comes down the decline in specific players as they age, and the decline of the roster in terms of the amount of time they spend per game killing penalties.
2015/2016 the Flames top PK player was Brodie at 2:36 per game, while this year Giordano and Hamonic were playing more than that per game. Combine that with the wheels falling off Backlund (29), Frolik(30), Stajan(34) and Brouwer (32) without any real additions to the roster save Janko more than explains away the decline in offense from this team relative to last year, two years ago and three years ago.
You can say it's 'style of play', but I really don't see how the team was playing any differently this year as compared to last year that would see their bottom 9 roster forwards being essentially without offense for half of the year. If you're going to dismiss it as 'style of play', I think it behooves you to at least pay lip service to why or how that was.
What was the change in a single season in the style of play that caused the top end of the roster to explode and the bottom half to fizzle out? What was the coaching adjustment that contributed to Backlund and Frolik scoring 17 less goals than last year but also saw Ferland add 16 points to his totals? Was Sam Bennett who finished with 26 points both seasons somehow immune to these coaching changes? Why did it impact Stajan so adversely that he'd decline by nearly 50% in offensive output?
FDW's explanation seems to make the most sense, Injuries and age took a middling offensive group and transferred them to the bottom of the league in offense.
Last year the Flames got 34 points out of Engelland and Wideman in 138 games. This year, they got 21 points out of Hamonic and Stone in 156 games. How does the discrepancy in those specific totals impact PDB?
Do you really think that is coaching?