Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Corsica hockey has expected save percentage using similar metrics, and then from that a differential to actual save percentage that you can sort.
If you look at the negative side, that is goaltenders that have under achieved in save percentage vs the quality of the shots they are facing (1000 min minimum) you get ...
1. Chad Johnson -1.71
2. Craig Andersson -1.70
3. Matt Murray -1.59
4. Carey Price -1.55
5. Scott Darling -1.47
Some big names on there playing behind some good hockey teams and not having great seasons.
I can't vouch for the counting stats behind his methodology but they are very least consistent across the league and he breaks shots into low, medium and high danger.
Top five were Grubauer, Ryan Miller, Bobrovsky, Saros and Carter Hutton ... Crawford, Luongo, Gibson, Rinne, Kuemper rounded out the top ten.
Mike Smith was a +.53 on the season.
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Not sure but I think that the base statistics for their analysis is based wholly on position of the shot (available from the NHL game logs)
The main thing that the OP is presenting is that the quality of the scoring chance is based on prior puck movement.
Ovechkin and Laine have tons of high scoring chances from outside of the quality scoring area ( shooting from the left of the left face off dot) because the puck movement.
The corsica data would say the goalie is letting in goals from a bad shooting area when in fact they are making great saves when these shots do not go in.