Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
You are seeing what you want to see if you only see Calgary and Carolina as outliers.
Top 10 teams CF%: 4 of the top 6 didn't make the playoffs
Top ten teams in Scoring Chances %: 2 of the top 3, 3 of the top 7, and 4 of the top 9 didn't make the playoffs.
Top ten teams in High Danger Chance %: top 2, and 4 of the top 6 didn't make the playoffs
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Honestly it's better to look at it over a longer period of time if you want to see the outliers.
Here is 5v5 Corsi Looking at the last 4 seasons:
1) Los Angeles: 54.16%
2) Carolina: 52.43%
3) Boston: 52.42%
4) Nashville: 52.03%
5) Tampa Bay: 52.01%
6) Pittsburgh: 51.95%
7) Chicago: 51.77%
8) Dallas: 51.47%
9) St. Louis: 51.40%
10) San Jose: 51.40%
In that situation I think it's pretty clear that the teams that people usually think of as "elite" are in the top 10. It really is astounding that the team would be in that company over a 4 year period and not have one playoff appearance to show for it.
Really the failure comes down to save percentage + shooting percentage issues. Over the same 4 year period Carolina is last...by a lot.
31: Carolina - .981
30: Buffalo - .989
29: Edmonton - .991
28: Arizona - .993
27: Vancouver - .994
So they have the Corsi of an elite team, but the PDO of a lottery team.
The problem is these stats don't tell us why this is. And my worry is that when you see these results over a 4 year period that they are no longer an outlier but that there is something structurally wrong with that team.
Then the question is:
A) Are those PDO problems due to the lack of talent on that roster. Poor goaltending & shooting talent has cratered what is actually a really strong system.
or
B) There is something structurally in Peters system that causes his team to give up a higher proportion of high quality scoring chances, while failing to generate their own high quality chances.
Tough to know since I really haven't watched much of Carolina outside of when they play the Flames.