Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
This is the problem with the supporters of counting stats. It is a simple and clear fact that the correlation (and it is a correlation, not a cause and effect) between good counting stats and good teams is not all that strong. There are lots of examples of teams that don't fit the narrative.
And while many of the stats supporters will concede that it isn't everything, it's only one piece of information, the problem is that they invariably take the outliers (and again, there are lots) and conclude that they are unlucky or untalented, instead of the FAR more plausible conclusion, which is that there is a tremendous amount of noise in these numbers, and a tremendous number of variables influencing them, and that, in all likelihood, they are simply misleading or false signals. That the team is in fact, as bad as it looks.
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First off I have never nor will I ever suggest counting stats are the only way to assess players or coaches.
But this need to discount additional information by some, not all, is perplexing to me.
If the results don't follow you have to understand why to the best of your abilities (I won't say deep dive for fear of backlash all weekend).
I have a huge problem believing any NHL level coach is coaching for possession metrics and not results, that seems like a big stretch to me. They believe what they believe will lead to wins, and every fan is welcome to agree or disagree with the assumptions in their system.
At the end of the day it's not a bad thing to have more shot attempts than the opposition, and it's certainly not a bad thing to have more shot attempts closer to the net that are deemed dangerous.
Top ten teams CF%
Carolina#Hurricanes
Boston#Bruins
Calgary#Flames
Chicago#Blackhawks
Pittsburgh#Penguins
St Louis#Blues
Tampa Bay#Lightning
Winnipeg#Jets
Columbus#Blue Jackets
Nashville#Predators
Calgary and Carolina the outliers
Top ten teams in Scoring Chances %
Boston#Bruins
Carolina#Hurricanes
Calgary#Flames
Tampa Bay#Lightning
Winnipeg#Jets
Pittsburgh#Penguins
Chicago#Blackhawks
Toronto#Maple Leafs
Dallas#Stars
Vegas#Golden Knights
Carolina and Calgary the outliers, Dallas less so
Top ten teams in High Danger Chance %
Dallas#Stars
Calgary#Flames
Minnesota#Wild
Tampa Bay#Lightning
Montreal#Canadiens
Carolina#Hurricanes
Winnipeg#Jets
New Jersey#Devils
Boston#Bruins
Toronto#Maple Leafs
Add Montreal to the list with Calgary and Carolina
So no it's not a formula and I think most would admit that, but it does appear to correlate about 80% as studies have shown.