Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Disagree.
A guy fell into a 30M crevasse near Jasper yesterday and lived. But I wouldn't hold the overall rule of not jumping into 30M crevasses in question.
It's statistics.
2/16 teams that made it shouldn't have
2/15 teams that missed shouldn't have
Those are summaries that advanced stats gurus would hold as gospel. I'm not in that camp at all. But I do wonder why they happened, and I think they should be looked into in order to make sure you don't over look factors that could help make a good decision.
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I think the number of false positives is significantly higher than that. But let's accept those numbers as gospel for the sake of this discussion...
we are left with one of two conclusions:
a) the Flames are better than their record (as per the stats), or
b) they are one of the two false signals (i.e. they don't apply to the Flames)
Considering the consistency and duration of their under-performance, I am led to the second choice.
And whether you think the stats are garbage, or whether you think they simply aren't applicable in this case, you end up at the same place: there is nothing to be gleaned from them with respect to the Flames.