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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
I have two issues with what you say.
First, I don't know that a system is likely to result in more saves or higher shooting percentage. If there was evidence that the Flames were taking too many perimeter shots, maybe, but that's not apparent. Further, most of the work done on the topic indicates that defender performance can decrease shots against, but doesn't influence save percentage much, if at all. So I don't think the system can be blamed for not putting pucks in the net.
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I don't buy that, since what work I've seen basically says "numbers should even out over time", which is a bad assumption.
This article kind of sums up my feelings on save percentage as a team stat.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...s-a-team-stat/
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There's no reason that a team with Connor McDavid on it should have the worst power play shooting percentage in the league.
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That sentence alone should I think prove that both shooting percentage and sv% are affected by coaching. (If one of them is, then both are.)
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The other thing I take issue with is assuming a coaching change will fix it. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they'd be wrong to fire Gulutzan, particularly if the guys won't play hard for him, or if you think that their even strength play is the result of their talent more than the system. However, my concern is that if you bring a new guy in, and he messes with the way they play, they'll take a step back in terms of what they ARE doing well right now - which is the most important thing to be good at, in my view.
Again, that doesn't mean don't fire the coach, it means you recognize and assess that risk before deciding to take it.
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I get that, but not really. I mean, they finished miles away from the playoffs, and not just because they melted in the end. They projected to be a below 90-point team well before the halfway mark of the season.
It just seems to be a very, very low risk move. Even if they do become worse at something they do well now, at the absolute worst it gets us a better draft pick. And there's just no way they're going to be less entertaining than they were this season even if that was the case.