Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
There's also the possibility of there's systematic issues.
This I very much agree with. It's actually a big reason why I so strongly support changing the head coach and seeing what happens before making other big changes. It's a limited change that seems very likely to be either a wash or an improvement. You know a lot more about this team when you've had another coach.
|
I have two issues with what you say.
First, I don't know that a system is likely to result in more saves or higher shooting percentage. If there was evidence that the Flames were taking too many perimeter shots, maybe, but that's not apparent. Further, most of the work done on the topic indicates that defender performance can decrease shots against, but doesn't influence save percentage much, if at all. So I don't think the system can be blamed for not putting pucks in the net.
However, it can be blamed for special teams results. This is key, and should be kept in mind, because that's nearly all coaching. The Oilers are a good example here. There's no reason that a team with Connor McDavid on it should have the worst power play shooting percentage in the league. From what I've seen, the reason is that they're too static and are constantly trying to force a royal road pass to Draisaitl. That's a coaching failure. But you need to understand what the problem is before you can assess how to fix it.
The other thing I take issue with is assuming a coaching change will fix it. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they'd be wrong to fire Gulutzan, particularly if the guys won't play hard for him, or if you think that their even strength play is the result of their talent more than the system. However, my concern is that if you bring a new guy in, and he messes with the way they play, they'll take a step back in terms of what they ARE doing well right now - which is the most important thing to be good at, in my view.
Again, that doesn't mean don't fire the coach, it means you recognize and assess that risk before deciding to take it.