Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
First off I've talked eye test all season. I outline the marriage or complete diversion of stats to the eye test when I see a correlation or a break down. I'm not a one trick pony at all.
However getting the analytics department to dig deeper isn't to stare at numbers all day. The numbers are in.
The next level is to pick out a few games with high scoring chance counts and go back and watch the video, categorize them into times they were stoned by a goaltender, or had a recording of a high danger chance that wasn't all that dangerous.
Do that for enough games and get a percentage of actually dangerous dangerous.
Then look at Tampa Bay, Boston, Toronto ... get their percentages as well.
Then you may have a systemic issue that allows them to have a pop gun offence despite good counting stats.
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I would hope that the teams have better stats input than the general public.
A shot from a spot on the ice does not make it a scoring chance.
The same shot with a screen in front or a goalie or the goalie moving from the other side of the net is far more of a scoring chance than a clear blast from the exact same spot with the goalie set.
A one timer from the same spot is a higher scoring chance than accepting a pass and then shooting.
An shot while being contacted by the opposition would be a lesser scoring chance.
A shot forced to one side of the net by defense positioning would be a lesser scoring chance.
A clear shot with the goalie set and some one driving the net would be a better scoring chance.
A quick release shot from the boards along the icing line with someone crashing the net from the others side is a good scoring chance.
A shot to the inside of the goal post is a much better scoring chance than hitting the Goalies crest.
just saying a video analyst accounting for all these variables would do a much better categorization of shot quality than simply taking the point from where a shot was taken.
I have to believe that teams already have a much better input to fancy stats than we the fans get to use. They would not be open to sharing as it would be a competitive advantage having a better stats department.
Teams would use there own stats rather than over-value the Flames players that have put up great corsi numbers using the generally available stats.