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Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Took a long break but here are my thoughts on the Flames, what went wrong, how close we are to contending and how to get there.
What Went Wrong?
The league is now a 3 line league. I think in order for the Flames to be contenders we need to have 2 scoring lines and an elite checking line. I think part of the problem this year was that GG over utilized Backlund/Frolik as offensive players when I think their strength lies in being elite checking line players. In order to develop two scoring lines I think one of Bennett or Jankowski needed to be developed into a 2nd line scoring centre. IMO GG did not put these players in position to succeed at this because we did not play any of our top offensive wingers with those players. IMO it was a mistake to keep Tkachuk on our checking line where some of his offence was wasted by being played with Backlund/Frolik. Tkachuk or Gaudreau was needed to play wing with Bennett/Jankowski in order to give those kids confidence and create a secondary threat line that could be used offensively. This would've freed up Backlund/Frolik to be used as an elite shutdown line. IMO one of GG's biggest failings is not realizing appropriate roles for players like Tkachuk, Backlund and Frolik and how to build up Bennett/Jankowski into top two line players. This alone is cause for his firing IMO before you even get into the issue of him not being a good emotional leader and motivator for the club. Obviously not having Giordano and Hamilton on the first powerplay unit for the half the year is indefensible and once again points to this coaching staff not recognizing the talent on this team and how to utilize it. GG may be good at coaching his system but he fails completely at building depth on a team and utilizing the players at hand.
How Close are we to having a Contending Roster?
The Flames are not a rebuilding team. It is bizarre to me that some fans think we are still in the rebuild. IMO the Flames have most of the components needed to be a contending team. Obviously we're short a scoring winger and this remains the only large and noticeable hole. The rest I think falls into place if players are slotted better. Some have argued in this thread that we don't have contending depth at centre with Monahan/Backlund as our top two centres. I agree with that in a sense. To me the Flames are contenders once Bennett or Jankowski pushes Backlund down to be an elite 3rd line checking centre. Inexplicably we haven't really seen Bennett or Jankowski centering top two line wingers so we don't know if they can handle that but in theory I think both have the capabilities to do so. Bennett does look better on the wing to me but I think can be developed into a top two line player still. Some people don't have the patience required to develop young players and want them dealt before they are fully developed. I think we should probably sit on Bennett unless someone overpays.
So what do the Flames need to do to become a contender? The big step for me is to hire a competent coaching staff that put players in the right slots. The second step is to trade for or sign another scoring winger.
How Do We Get There?
Do we need more heart? More guys who hate to lose? Perhaps. Out of all the names I've seen mentioned in this thread as fitting Francis's description the one that sticks out most to me is Hamilton.
Hamilton has the skill and physical tools to be a Pronger like defenseman. What he lacks is the drive to play physical, to make the opposition pay a big price to come into our defensive zone. He also doesn't seem to be as engaged defensively as he does offensively. Does this mean he lacks heart or doesn't hate losing enough? In a way I think it does. Is it a problem? By itself no. But perhaps there are too many players like this on the Flames. Gaudreau can't be physical due to his size constraints. But both Monahan and Hamilton lack a physical engagement despite having good size and strength. Both seem to lack a passion and urgency at times. Does this mean we have to trade one or both? I don't think it does. That said I think both Monahan and Hamilton would fetch an absolute ransom in terms of trades. To use the examples being heavily used in this thread I think both Monahan and Hamilton hold more value than Richards/Carter did and I think you could get an absolute haul back from certain GMs for either guy. Out of the two I'd rather keep Monahan as I think his drawbacks are less important than Dougie's. Also we don't have a replacement for Monahan if we were to deal him whereas our strength in prospects lies on the defense.
Brodie. Brodie has not looked great since he was switched to LD. Some people have argued this has tanked his value. But GMs don't usually just base valuations solely on the last season or 2 played. Their idea of a player and valuation of a player is based on their entire career. Some GMs will think they might be able to get more out of Brodie in a different situation. IMO Brodie is worth a 1st+ or a scoring winger. Would I rather trade Brodie or Dougie? I would definitely rather trade Brodie.
Gaudreau. I think you can win with him. I think if our whole roster is built around him as our main weapon we would struggle. But I don't think that will be the case when we're contending. He will be one of many weapons. The % of goals he's in on is an indictment of our secondary scoring more than anything. Gaudreau is not the problem. I'd be inclined to keep him unless you get a crazy offer on him.
So how do we get another scoring winger? I think you have to deal one of Brodie or Hamilton. Our biggest depth in terms of prospects is defensemen. I think Valimaki will be a top 3 defenseman and that he's not very far off. Andersson has some speed issues but other than that has looked very good. Kylington and Fox are both high upside prospects. The obvious way to increase our depth in scoring is to deal a top 3 dman for a scoring winger. And this won't hurt that much considering how many high end young defensemen we have in the system. I would prefer to deal Brodie but I recognize that Hamilton will get you way, way more and the offers for Hamilton may just be too amazing to turn down. I think Hamilton could be dealt for a scoring winger + 1st rounder or top prospect. But if you can find a Brodie for a scoring winger type deal I think that would be the best way to go.
IMO our depth looks pretty good if a new coach can develop Bennett and/or Jankowski into top two line players and we acquire a scoring winger via trade.
Gaudreau-Monahan-New Guy
Tkachuk-Jankowski-Ferland
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Brouwer-Lazar-Foo
Shore-Hathaway
I really think coaching let us down this year in many ways. GG did not utilize our players to their best potential and failed to lead, inspire and motivate his team. I think our roster is actually a lot closer to contending than some here believe. I think the team is still asset rich despite trading away the picks for Hamonic and I don't think that was as bad a trade as some believe it was.
Plenty of reasons for optimism should we get a new coaching staff in place. And Treliving still has a lot of assets to work with for when he decides to make moves to balance the roster out. If the Flames do decide to trade a young core player I think Treliving can get a lot back for some of them.
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you came close to the edge and you walked back from it. Try finding any successful team with 2 lady Byng guys as their top 2 forwards AND a passive Non-aggressive guy as their big d_man. Toss in Brodie as their best puck mover, skater who avoids physical contact and is a target in important games and you have a team that can't win.
Try to find an elite checking line that has less physicality than Backlund and Frolik... The lines that the checking line has to neutralize pretty much all have a #1 C that is pretty physically imposing and there usually is a power forward on one of the wings. There are no teams in the playoffs with the Sedins as their top line ...not since the Flames beat them in the playoffs
Lowry- Copp - Tanev / Armia / Hendricks for instance is the Jets elite checking line.
The good team runs 3 scoring lines, There is no 4th line (in the Flames tradition) on really good teams.