Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
The idea behind Corsi is quantifying the proportion of behaviour (shots) that lead to the expected result (goals).
|
This is incorrect. Shots on goal is quantifying the proportion of behavior that's expected to lead to goals.
Corsi (or relative corsi to be more specific)
is a proxy stat for "possession". Possession is supposed to lead wins. Not goals for or against, wins. (Or, "more goals for than against".)
Two facts:
- From what we know of other sports, some of which track possession directly instead of trying to do it through a proxy (soccer being the best example since it has by-the-second tracking of the ball and all players),
possession is a quite poor predictor of wins. While not all sports are the same, I have seen no explanation why possession would be somehow especially relevant in hockey.
-
Shots are not a very good indicator of who actually dominated the game. Adding "shots not on goal" to "shots on goal" is adding noise to what is already a rather uninformative stat. In general, increasing sample size is rarely a great way to improve a statistic beyond a certain basic level.
In other words, whether you think corsi is supposed to be an improved shot tracker (questionable whether it's actually improved) or a proxy possession tracker, it's highly questionable whether either of those statistics are that useful. (Plus it's questionable whether corsi is a
good proxy for possession in the first place.)