Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
It's both. Goal differential and gf% are excellent predictors of future success.
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Maybe think of it as that the objective is to score goals for and prevent goals against
- the idea is to get shots on net, usually required to score
- goalie should stop 90 percent of shots so keep shooting
- scoring is a result of shooting
The idea behind Corsi is quantifying the proportion of behaviour (shots) that lead to the expected result (goals).
So some people are saying GF is a result based stat. Fair, especially relative to Corsi
You are saying it is a predictor of standings results.
They are trying to add a previous level which is arguably more behavioural in terms of fundamentals and less outcome based
Or in other words, consider it in terms of dependence stepwise
- more shots proportionally presumably should result in more goals proportionally, all else being equal
- more goals proportionally should result in more wins, all else being equal
- more wins should result in better place in the standings, all else being equal
So of course goal differential (step 2) should be a better predictor of place in standings (step 3) than shot differential (step 1), because the ‘all else being equal’ qualifier drops off as you move up each step.