Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
It just means that there's a bit of a statistical anomaly in terms of how the Flames have performed to date.
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I get a kick out of this. “A bit of a statistical anomaly.”
No, the Flames have repeatedly and consistently demonstrated that the model of shot counts implying degree of control and probability of outscoring and thus winning is not a fit for this team.
An anomaly is a point or two in disagreement, not a broad sweeping sustained and apparently repeatable series of refutations.
* I note that Bingo has come around to acknowledging that the model does not work because not all shots are equal, and shot location as a proxy for quality isn’t good enough, and is agreeing that other things need to be measured to come up with a model that does work. (Still keeps reporting it every game, though, without the context and disclaimers, and gets frustrated with the responses. Hopefully next year somebody is aggregating and reporting more situational data that is correlative.)
I do agree with you that goal differential is not terribly useful. It is almost as bad as correlating standings to wins. (I know, I know ... I get the LA example and how the fates of the teams have changed.)