Tkachuk is brimming with intangibles BUT he is coming off a serious concussion and he did not have a significantly better second year than his first year.
With the concussion the risk of extending him before his 3rd year is a high risk for the Flames.
Ehlers (who went back to junior for a year for seasoning)
Ehlers stats espn
He had 40 goals and 108 pts over the 2 year period.... 31 goals and 85 pts at ES.
he had an increase in goals from 15 to 25 and pts from 38 to 64
He had went from 27 to 52 es pts in his 2nd year. and from 11 to 20 es goals
Tkachuk straight into the show-
Tkachuk espn stats
Tkachuk has similar scoring line to Ehlers for the 2 years
37 goals and 97 points
At es 24 goals and 60 pts statistically inferior to Ehlers 31-85
Ehlers signed a 6M x 7 yrs before the 2017-18 season started
Based on the simple fact that Ehlers was better at ES and he was significantly better his 2nd season than his first I would definitely put Ehler's contract as the absolute high end for Tkachuk.
The intangibles break out pretty close IMHO. Tkachuk is a great power forward... Ehlers skates and plays at one of the highest paces in the league. He breaks opposing teams strategies of clogging up the neutral zone.
If Tkachuk wants a long term deal this summer 5M x 6. He has to give up some $$ to pay for the risk.
If the Flames are worried about his injury and him adjusting his style of play then they let him play the next year on his ELC.
Is he a consistent 30 goal 60 pt player? If he shows that in 2018-19 then he might get a 6/6.5 x 7 next summer.... or a bridge deal