Quote:
Originally Posted by taxbuster
There is a consideration with that - even with the "really freaking dangerous" shots: where other players are positioned at the time of the shot.
Somehow one needs to look at each shot in several lights: how close was it to the net? where were the G and D positioned for the other team? where were the F supporting the shot? There are a LOT of shades of grey there -- a shot from close in (what they like to call the "high danger" area) is a lot less dangerous if the goalie is square to the puck, a D-man is beside him and your only F nearby is the guy taking the shot.
OTOH, if the F is supported by 2 other Fs right beside him it's a MUCH higher chance shot. Even a drifting light shot from the point is more dangerous if there is an F or two close in front of the net - deflections or rebounds are much more likely.
The Flames get guys in close fairly regularly - but only one at a time. There's just no puck support so rebounds are easily cleared.
A "dangerous" shot with a low "likelihood" of recovery, rebound or deflection is really just a shot.
*If* they evaluate this way, then it may show something. The heat maps sure don't some days - they're all over the ice shooting, but clearly there is no one in position to put the puck away.
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If I was to make an attempt at creating a "dangerous shot" chart, I would probably track something like "how many players from your team are directly involved", and by being involved I mean
a) being open for a pass in an alternate scoring position
b) screening the goalie
c) passed the puck within the last 1 second (2 if there's 2 passes)
This kinf of the stuff that makes things hard for a goalie. If there's another guy open, they often can't fully commit to the shot that's coming without risking a pass and a tap-in, plus it forces them to control the rebounds which is more difficult than just stopping the puck. If there's screen they can't see the puck. If the puck just moved from one player to another they had to quickly move to get in position again. Combine these three and you have a great scoring chance.
I'm not saying this is some perfect formula, but ultimately this kind of stuff is a lot more important than simply where the shot comes from.
Or, alternatively you might do a simple count: are there more your guys closer to the goalie than opposing players when the shot goes?