[Ryan Coke]

I absolutely agree that luck plays a part, the line between winning and losing can be very fine.

But any statistical analysis where ‘luck’ is an accepted conclusion, really isn’t worth much.

I think the idea you had Bingo of looking at scoring chances and rating what makes more or less dangerous ones is great. Really it means we are looking for a more accurate statistical representation that has a much stronger correlation with winning, because it s becoming more evident all the time that Corsi and HDSC haven’t achieved a useful level of predictability.

It is just a stat, and is not inherently bad or good. But it is bad as an overall measurement of a teams ability to win or lose consistently, much like face off %, hit counts, and +/- .

And as Zamler says, 160+ games is a pretty generous sample size.