[DeluxeMoustache]

Or another way to say it - perhaps there is a model to be generated that suggests there is a window within the time frame of pulling the goalie to score, ideally, after which the odds of the other team gaining possession and the corresponding odds of being scored on increase to the point, that the advantage of pulling so early has dissipated.

And the value of the model, based on extrapolation of available data, is nullified.

So, for example, let’s say a team has 15 percent chance of scoring 6 on 5.
Let’s say the other team has
- 10 percent chance of gaining possession within 30 seconds
- 50 percent chance of gaining possession within 60 seconds
- 90 percent chance of gaining possession within 90 seconds

(I don’t know what these actual numbers are but somebody should be able to figure them out)

The point is that, as time elapses, the cumulative odds of the opponent gaining possession, and thus scoring, continue to increase.

Say they have a 30 percent chance of scoring if they get possession (?). Then the window is basically equal at around 60 seconds, and certainly something less than 90 seconds.

And if you are down by only one goal, in my mind you don’t pull the goalie with 5:40 left because the odds are the same within your window, then get progressively worse.

Then the logic actually goes the other way. If it is a 1 goal game and your window is 90 seconds, maybe you are best to wait until less than that 90 seconds.