[DeluxeMoustache]

I haven’t read all of the other papers they cite.

Here is the problem. I am sure that the data amassed is based on a great number of situations where there are less than 30, 60, or 90 seconds on the clock. And it is being extrapolated.

When a goal is scored with the goalie pulled, how long does it usually take?
What is the projected frequency for change in possession when it is 6 on 5?
When the other team gets possession, what is their probability of scoring in the empty net?
For that matter, what is their strategy? Get a whistle or try to transition to offense? And how does that affect the short duration /late pull data.

I would expect that the only way to answer these questions would be for someone to start pulling the goalie at 5:40 to get a significant data set. And I suspect the likelihood of the team eventually losing possession and thus surrendering a goal when you pull with several minutes left may well outweigh the likelihood of surrendering a goal when limited time is left.