Panarin's even strength scoring rates are comparable to what Saad has done going into thi year.
I think that was the real logic here. Saad generally scores as much ES, while also being a bigger factor on puck possession and getting the puck moved the right way. The Hawks were brutal the year before in this year regard, and I do think the logic was sound.
To be fair here, Saad, has been historically unlucky this year. His ES scoring attempts and high danger chances are still top 10 in the NHL for forwards (right around Hall and McDavid). No question that Saad doesn't have the level of skill or finish of those guys, and that plays a big factor as to why he doesn't score as often. But Saad is not a true talent 35 point player. He's been the same player as he has been in the past, and I think the Hawks can bank on a bounceback next season, where they can expect Saad to be mid 50's ES scorer.
Where the Hawks missed IMO, was the underrated the effect of Panarin on their PP. Him and Kane were lethal together, causing an elite PP for Chicago. Panarin left, and the PP went down the tubes. I believe they thought through some combo of DeBrincat/Schmaltz/Saad, that the PP wouldn't be tarnished as much, but it hasnt worked out, which has been devastating for the Blackhawks.
Overall, if Saad bounces back to past year levels (which I like the odds of), they figure out the right personnel on the PP, this transaction is not going to kill them long term. And getting back to the playoffs where penalties aren't distributed as much, and less space on the ice for creativity, I do think Saad very well could be as impactful (potentially more?) than Panarin in that scenario.
Year 1 goes to CBus on this one, but year 2 will look different IMO.
Let's hope the Hawks overreact and trade Saad for a Larsson type... now that would be an overreaction and something that could really turn this into an Oilers level disaster.
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