Five Thirty Eight has their MLB projections out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...b-predictions/
Blue Jays current ELO is 1507, so slightly over league average of 1500. Not surprisingly, they were projected to get an 81-81 record, which translates into a 27% chance of making the playoffs.
These predictions seems fairly in line with what we are expecting. A team close to .500 with an outside shot at a wild card position.