Another factor to take into account for this question is what the revised cost will be if you get lottery protection and actually win the lottery.
You will almost-always have to pay some sort of premium not just for lottery protection, but also if you use the lottery protection. It's not just a case of adding a fourth round pick for lottery protection.
It's kind of like insurance. You pay the premiums even if you never make a claim, but if you do make a claim, you need to pay the deductible first.
The final deal is more likely going to be something like:
- No Lottery Protection: 2018 1st round pick
- With Lottery Protection: 2018 1st round pick (not top 3) & 2018 4th round pick OR (if 2018 1st rounder is top 3), 2019 1st round pick & 2018 2nd round pick.
In the case of the Hamonic trade, it already included 2 second round picks, so you have to wonder what the increased compensation would have been if the 2018 first rounder did end up being a top-3 pick?
You also have to take into account that if you lottery protect a pick, you'll definitely lose the following year's pick with no protection. While it's hard to predict your standing a year in advance, it's even harder to predict it two years out.