Relatively recent comparisons: Iginla scored 194 goals age 33 and beyond. Sakic had 142. Shanahan had 153. Selanne had 248 (playing until age 43, with a few injury shortened seasons. Hull had 214. Jagr isn't a good comparison, but he did score 54 at age 33, but has not exceeded 30 in a season since then (only 2 years before he went overseas though).
Of course, Ovechkin is a different class than all of them (except maybe Hull), and will pass them all on the all time list sooner than later.
IMO, something like the following might be reasonable:
50
42
48
34
36
30
~240 more goals over 6 seasons...puts him around 840 at age 39. Another lockout could be a gift and/or a curse - maybe helps him get an extra 1.5 seasons if he wants.
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