[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

That's using the 50-50 method.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Calgary2.html

Using the weighted method, it's 14.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

I believe these estimates aren't entirely accurate on the basis that they have, at times in the past, underestimated the number of 3-point games that teams in the playoff hunt tend to play down the stretch.

I think the Flames' real playoff odds are closer to
https://streamable.com/5pmol

10-4-1 probably gets us in. What are the odds of that? 15% seems about right with Smith. Without, it's probably not pretty.