I think the shortcoming of using shot location as the only measure of shot quality is it misses the speed at which the play developed and the amount of time the defensive team had to set up their structure. Those are really tough to quantify in a meaningful, objective manner but do have an impact, so this is one of those areas where you need to fall back on the eye test to explain the discrepancy between the possession numbers and the real results.
We generate a lot of chances where someone like Monahan, Tkachuk, or Ferland gets a shot on net from the high-danger area, but they don't get a clean shot away because their stick was tied up by one defender, and they're shooting through/around another. A shot from the same area on the rush will generally go in more because you don't have the same amount of defensive pressure in the way, so you'll generally get a better shot off.
Our system is absolutely fantastic at getting to the dangerous areas and creating shots when the other team is set up and in position. But we don't do a good job capitalizing on defensive mistakes like a slow line change or a bad pinch, which generally create cleaner, more dangerous chances. Those factors are not accounted for in raw shot counts. We really don't generate a lot of easy goals, unless Gaudreau is at the top of his game and cleanly walks around multiple defenders.
Maybe I'm missing some other factor that explains why our chances go in less that they "should." But I think coaching has to have an impact - otherwise how can you explain how all 4 years of Hartley, we had a higher shooting percentage than both years of Gulutzan?
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