Advanced stats models are still more confident than goal-based, but all are tightening up as you would expect - with the exception of MoneyPuck that uses 20 fewer games of data.
MoneyPuck: 70% (advanced with first 20 games omitted and assigns OT at 50/50)
The Athletic: 43% (advanced and accounts for injuries and line combinations)
Corsica: 35% (advanced)
HockeyViz: 30% (advanced)
Hockey Reference: 32%
Sports Club Stats: 29%
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"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
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