Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
This is an improper use of statistics. Of course the Flames' goal differential is pretty much in line with their actual results, as you would expect. This says absolutely nothing about whether their actual results are in line with the results that could reasonably be expected on other grounds. You dismiss the question outright by giving an answer to a completely different question.
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"Results that could reasonably be expected on other grounds"? What does that mean? What other grounds?? Again, over small sample sizes, you can expect random fluctuations to often overwhelm underlying fundamentals, which is why you'll see teams go 40% on the PP for a while, but over the long term they'll return to a more average level.
However, with a large enough sample size, you can expect that the overall results will reflect the underlying fundamentals. That's why I looked at total 145 game tenure of Gulutzan. You could expect a team with a good roster in a "solid system" to underperform due to randomness, luck, etc., for periods of a season, with that small sample size failing to refect the underlying fundamentals of a system, but it's ridiculous to suggest that after nearly two full seasons the results still aren't reflecting the system.
The Flames boast (on paper) one of the best defense corps in the league, a legitimate starting goaltender, and in the Gaudreau and 3M lines enough offense that, in a "solid system" should have no problem scoring more goals than they let in. Yet they aren't. And that has been true over a large enough sample size that it's very likely a reflection of the underlying fundamentals of Gulutzan's system; that there's no reasonable basis to think that they can keep doing the same thing and expect to consistently put out different results.