Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
And 9 seasons of data shows something different......thats my point.
I hope he hits 60 points...hell i hope he hits 100, but that doesnt change the fact he hasnt, and almost assuredly wont as he gets older. I would like to see what he does with a different wingman on his left, as I think thats what will define how good this deal is when all is said and done. Unless we are OK with paying 5+ per, for a really good defensive specialist, which is what he is if he regresses to his norm, he needs to produce at a clip he simply hasnt done for more than 2 1/2 years yet. I think he can, but there is a real risk he doesnt.
This contract has every chance to blow up in the Flames face as it does to be a good value...which is why several people dont particularly like the term. Though, admittedly, its a better gamble to have him on the team than not, and this was the price to make that happen.
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What the heck do you think "9 years worth of data " is actually bringing to the table? In analyzing who backlund is today, I do not care at all what backlund did during his developing years. It's not relevant information.
3 year recent splits is a commonly accepted amount of time to define a player's current skill level. It's a long enough period of time to remove statistical noise and helps define what a player is capable of doing.
The recent seasons peg backlund right at the 50 point average over 82 game mark that you are saying doesn't define him. It's a weird take and pretty basic analysis shows you are factually incorrect.
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