Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL
Yikes. Backlund's shooting percentage is the lowest it's been in 7 years, his oiSH% is the lowest it's been in 7 years, and his PDO is the lowest it's been in 7 years.
Despite having an incredibly unlucky season, he still ranks 56th among NHL centres in production and is still on pace for 48 points and yet you think he won't reach 50 points again? Yikes. Last season, he ranked 35th among centres in points and considering advanced stats tend to normalize after an unlucky season 99% of the time, the chances are Backlund will be back to producing the way he was last season either nearing the end of this season or next season.
However, Backlund's offense isn't why he's so important to us. Yes, it's great he produces very good offensive numbers, but his defense is as good as any player's in the NHL. He gets buried defensively facing opposing teams' top lines every night and absolutely dominates them night in and night out despite getting buried in defensive zone starts. He's among the elite of the elite defensively.
His contract extension is an absolute steal and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't done their homework
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I have a few concerns about some of this. First of all, I don't think Backlund has just been unlucky. He's never been overly productive offensively. This season is only the fourth in his entire career that he's scored above 30 points. He turns 29 next month. I don't know about you, but I'm betting on a decrease in production over the life of the contract.
I'm not taking a huge risk when I predict that he may not hit 50 points again. He's only done that once in his career, and it's something that's going to become increasingly difficult as he continues to age. There has been a lot of evidence published that player scoring output is negatively correlated with age.
I agree that he's been an elite defensive player, and he can play on my team any day. I'm just suggesting that this contract may not appear to be as much of a bargain in years 4-6 as perhaps it seems to be today.