Here's my theory
FLames are too loose or too tight depending on how you look at it at the start of home games. They or the goalie are giving up the early lead and are having to play from behind in front of the home crowd. This leads to them taking offensive chances to even the score that may or may not work.
They then spend the most of the rest of the game chasing, which should have them generating more chances/shots than their opposition who is trying to shut them down.
So the advanced statistics suggest the flames should be luckier because they are generating more than they do on the road, but in fact they are playing from behind at home more frequently than on the road which is contributing to the goal differential and home/road shot imbalance.
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