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Itse · 02-03-2018, 04:49 PM

Here's something people might find interesting, season so far broken into 10 game segments.

I felt this was a good time to post this since with the recent win streak and loss streak there's a lot of "if you break the season this way it supports my argument" going on in right now

Breaking the season into standardized segments helps protect against confirmation bias somewhat (essentially by replacing it with randomness). So here's the season broken into 10 game segments: (SO goals are ignored.)

5-5 for 10 pts, Goals 24-30 (-6), Shots 310-342 (-32), PP 6 for 38, PKGA 9 on 44 PKs, Special teams -3 on -6 chances

7-3 for 14 pts, Goals 37-33 (+4), Shots 337-312 (+25), PP 10 for 35, PKGA 11 on 27 PKs, Special teams -1 on +8 chances

4-6 for 10 pts, Goals 26-30 (-4), Shots 351-310 (+41), PP 4 for 30, PKGA 3 on 27 PKs, Special teams +1 on +3 chances

4-6 for 10 pts, Goals 24-21 (+3), Shots 324-294 (+30), PP 5 for 35, PKGA 5 on 31 PKs, Special teams +0 on +4 chances

5-5 for 14 pts, Goals 27-20 (+7), Shots 308-347 (-39), PP 4 for 33, PKGA 4 on 35 PKs, Special teams +0 on -2 chances

Special teams summary (50 games):
Goal differential -3, Opportunity differential +7

If you're wondering about that last stat, it's differential of special team goals (so PPGF minus PKGA) and differential of special teams opportunities. Tracking that was why I originally started to look into this, as I was wondering how badly the special teams have been sinking us. I would say... not as much as I thought, as we're rarely actually losing the special teams battle in goals. But then again, since we get more PP opportunities than we give, better special teams could easily give us something like 10 goals better goal differential, or maybe 4 or so points. Not a huge difference, but obviously significant considering how tight the standings are.

Other comments;
- If you want to think positively, you'll notice that the team has been quite consistent in scoring goals (24-27 goals per 10 games), but goals against have been down, suggesting clear improvement and a brighter latter half of the season.

- If you want to look at the negative, that good defensive stretch seems to have ended (note that the 7 GA from TB are not counted here), and the latter half of that point streak was probably more about our goaltending being excellent than the team playing a solid defensive game. (If you look at just shots, the last 10 game segment was our worst of the season in both shots for and shots against.)

Note, I'm not a big fan of fancy stats, plus there's been several good posts already on those for those interested.

02-03-2018, 04:49 PM	#1
Itse Franchise Player Join Date: May 2004 Location: Helsinki, Finland Exp:	Flames 2017-2018 in 10 Game Segments (non-fancy) Here's something people might find interesting, season so far broken into 10 game segments. I felt this was a good time to post this since with the recent win streak and loss streak there's a lot of "if you break the season this way it supports my argument" going on in right now Breaking the season into standardized segments helps protect against confirmation bias somewhat (essentially by replacing it with randomness). So here's the season broken into 10 game segments: (SO goals are ignored.) 5-5 for 10 pts, Goals 24-30 (-6), Shots 310-342 (-32), PP 6 for 38, PKGA 9 on 44 PKs, Special teams -3 on -6 chances 7-3 for 14 pts, Goals 37-33 (+4), Shots 337-312 (+25), PP 10 for 35, PKGA 11 on 27 PKs, Special teams -1 on +8 chances 4-6 for 10 pts, Goals 26-30 (-4), Shots 351-310 (+41), PP 4 for 30, PKGA 3 on 27 PKs, Special teams +1 on +3 chances 4-6 for 10 pts, Goals 24-21 (+3), Shots 324-294 (+30), PP 5 for 35, PKGA 5 on 31 PKs, Special teams +0 on +4 chances 5-5 for 14 pts, Goals 27-20 (+7), Shots 308-347 (-39), PP 4 for 33, PKGA 4 on 35 PKs, Special teams +0 on -2 chances Special teams summary (50 games): Goal differential -3, Opportunity differential +7 If you're wondering about that last stat, it's differential of special team goals (so PPGF minus PKGA) and differential of special teams opportunities. Tracking that was why I originally started to look into this, as I was wondering how badly the special teams have been sinking us. I would say... not as much as I thought, as we're rarely actually losing the special teams battle in goals. But then again, since we get more PP opportunities than we give, better special teams could easily give us something like 10 goals better goal differential, or maybe 4 or so points. Not a huge difference, but obviously significant considering how tight the standings are. Other comments; - If you want to think positively, you'll notice that the team has been quite consistent in scoring goals (24-27 goals per 10 games), but goals against have been down, suggesting clear improvement and a brighter latter half of the season. - If you want to look at the negative, that good defensive stretch seems to have ended (note that the 7 GA from TB are not counted here), and the latter half of that point streak was probably more about our goaltending being excellent than the team playing a solid defensive game. (If you look at just shots, the last 10 game segment was our worst of the season in both shots for and shots against.) Note, I'm not a big fan of fancy stats, plus there's been several good posts already on those for those interested. Last edited by Itse; 02-03-2018 at 04:57 PM.