Quote:
Originally Posted by VANFLAMESFAN
I don't get how that site works.
If flames win in reg, they are three ahead of the kings with a game in hand. If Flames lose, they are one behind Kings and a game in hand.
But yet somehow according to the site, being one ahead with playing more games is worth 68% while being three up and a game in hand is only worth 63?
Wouldn't the Flames situation after a reg win being more likely to make playoffs than the Kings if they won in reg? Or is there more to it then just the standings? Do they somehow have some other formula that figures the kings are a superior team thus more likely to make it even with the deficit?
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There are two ways they do it:
1) 50-50: Meaning each team has equal chance to win the game; and
2) Weighted: They weight the chance of each win going forward.
From the site:
The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters.
So, switching to 50-50, Calgary increases by 7.0% and LA drops by 8.5% in a regulation Flames win, while in a regulation LA win, LA increases by 7.5% while Calgary drops by 8.1%.
At 50-50, we have 64.1% chance of playoffs currently, while LA has 48.4%.
At weighted, we have 56.1% chance of playoffs currently, while LA has 59.1%.