[killer_carlson]

My take on Hartley is that he devised a system to play to the strengths of the players he was provided by the GM. He was limited by the talent on the roster at times. Never was this more evident than in his last season when it came to goaltending.

None of the goalies that Hartley was provided with in the 2015/2016 season ever played another game in the NHL after that season. None.

I did some number crunching to get a sense of goaltending in 2015/16 vs this season to get a rough sense of what it would be like in the standings.


I weighted each goalie's save percentage and got an average for the year.

2015/16 average .897
2017/18 average .913

that is a difference of 0.016.

If you take an average of 30 shots per game, that is the difference in an extra goal every other game. (note, our average shot against in 2015/16 was 29. This year it's 32, so 30 is a reasonable threshold)

If we look to our record this year, we have:
4 one goal wins in October, incl 1 OT Win, 1 Shootout Win
4 one goal wins in November, incl 2 OT, 1 Shootout Win, 1 Shootout loss
2 one goal wins in December, incl 2 OT, 3 Shootout Loss
3 one goal wins in January, with 1 OT win, 1 SO loss

13 one goal wins. Of those 8 went into overtime/shootout.

If we had the same statistical goaltending as we did in 2015/2016 approximately half of those OT/Shootout games would have seen the Flames giving up an extra goal in regulation, thereby not getting into OT. Therefore, take the 8 wins that went into extra time and reduce that to 4 wins.


In this very rough, very quick analysis, the outcome I see is that had GG 2017/18 received the same level of goaltending as Hartley did in 2015/2016, the Flames would have at least 8 less points in the standings.

That would put us tied with Edmonton.

So as much as I like Sarich for the warrior he was on the ice, I think his story is about a coach pushing a complacent veteran to set an example for the young guys. I don't think it's fair to use Sarich's story to say Hartley is a terrible coach.