If you start to put together this deal let's start with a base that 2 x 1.75 is fair market today for shorty term. Jankowski gets 3.5 million and two years to show he's worth more, will have arbitration rights and 4 years before UFA. This position would be very valuable for Jankowski to hit the long term 6-8 year deal. So to buy him off his position you need to offer him something.
If Jankos upside is a top 2nd line centre then he is probably worth about 6m per for his peak years. So the Jankowski upside is
2 x 1.75
6 x 6
Which is roughly 40 million over eight.
The Jankowski downside would be a 3 million dollar 3C penalty killer with limited offense
So
2x1.75
2x 2.5
4x 3
For a total of just over 20 million.
So Janko's low end over the next 8 years is about 20 barring injury and high end is about 40. So can you work out an 8 x 3.75 for 30 that splits risk and upside? The worst case outcome is you end up with Matt Stajan for eight years.
I think as a player I would sign 8 x 30 before I'd sign 2 x 1.75 as it locks in your earnings and if you were worth the 40 million over the period your next contract would be pretty good. I suspect his agent would be pushing for a 6 year x 3.5 instead in that scenario which Would not be a good deal for the Flames.
2 x 1.75 = 3.5 most likely
6 x 3 = 18
8 x 3.75 = 30 my favourite.
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